March 4, 2026 Hi Everyone, Think about a decision you're weighing right now – a hire, a product bet, a pricing change. How confident are you that it will work? Now, give it a number. 70%? 85%? 95%? Whatever number you picked, it's probably too high. A decade-long study from Duke and Ohio State found that when CFOs made predictions they felt 80% sure about, they were only right 36% of the time. And the most confident ones? They spent more and borrowed more. Here’s a brief five-question...